this post was submitted on 21 Oct 2024
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I can't see any scenario where the border issue could result in a hot war. The whole thing is basically symbolic because the territory itself has little practical value to either side.
I wouldn't be so sure. I don't think a total war over these territories is likely, but there have been instances in the past of the situation escalating severely between India and China. Even though a lot of the fighting over the territories is symbolic, nationalism is a volatile thing. You never know when the border issues are used as a justification for bigger military action, especially at the urging of the US.
Good news is that relations between India and the US are in the gutter right now, also likely why de-escalation is happening in the first place. If India isn't going to bend the knee then they need BRICS which means making nice with China. I suspect economic pragmatism will win in the end.
As much as I would like to say that it will, I am not really hopeful in this regard. I'm Indian so I know many Indians. I can tell you that sinophobia and islamophobia has become a huge problem. A racist bourgeoisie ruled government should never be thought of as a reliable long-term partner. It is only a matter of time before they pull something stupid.
They are not a reliable partner because India is being pragmatic, as in they are acting in their own interests. They are only reliable while it is in their interests; if the situation changes that it becomes less beneficial to India then they will certainly turn on China. Obviously their long-term partnership is not something to gamble on.
I'm cautiously optimistic here, but you're right things can turn ugly very easily.